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Third-Front Dreams vs Reality

After AIADMK’s candidate list announcement the talk of third-front in Tamil Nadu have begun to catch fire. The major allies of AIADMK – DMDK, CPI, CPI(M), PK (& MDMK probably) are now in discussion to form the third-front.

Is the third-front really a possibility? Will third-front be able to make impact?
Third-front can be formed by the above mentioned parties but their chances of winning is still low. They may be able to win individually strong constituencies but they still will not be able to get sizable numbers to jolt either the DMK nor AIADMK.

However with the third-front in foray DMK is set to gain by the split of the anti-incumbency votes as it was in 2009 when DMDK stood alone and cornered 10% votes but failed to win even 1 seat.

Third-front will get votes of distractors of the Dravidan Parties (DMK & AIADMK) but given that group is still small to make a difference in the election results.

Back in 2006 assembly elections, in seats where AIADMK lost, the votes polled by DMDK was higher than the vote difference by which it AIADMK lost.

Currently the both the sides (DMK alliance & AIADMK alliance) look equally poised (DMK on it’s populistic schemes & AIADMK on the Scam front & anti-incumbancy factor). If the alliance partners of AIADMK ditch to form the third-front the battle will become more one-sided in favour of DMK alliance.

DMK has strategically pulled out of Chennai & major urban areas where the perceived impact of 2G Scam will be high, it has higher chances of winning from rural areas due to it’s populistic schemes.

Coming days will tell what is in store for people of Tamil Nadu

What do you think?

Do you think third front will win sizable number of seats?

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